Recently, I was reading an article in the Nike 2004 Coach of the Year Clinics Football Manual. In the article Noel Mazzone credits Ralph Friedgen for helping them develop how they determine their success ratio. Friedgen proposes that if you take the all the offensive penalties, sacks, turnovers, and dropped passes and divide them by the total number of plays. It is his contention that if you can keep the number under 12% you are 90% more likely to win the game. If the outcome is over 12% your likelihood of winning declines dramatically. I am going to have to go back and check our game films from the previous season and see if this hypothesis holds true for us.
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